Tag Archives: Conservative

An order of magnitude

We know many people are bad at maths. However, most mistakes are easily spotted through experience and common sense. But sometimes, common sense is lacking: here I’m talking about the Conservatives gaff on teenage pregnancy.

So first, the Conservatives. A few days ago they launched a document called Labour’s Two Nations, that was supposed to show how there is great inequality in Britain today (let’s ignore the fact that the rise in inequality happened in the 1980s). What they wanted to point out was that under-18 girls in the most deprived areas are three times more likely to become pregnant than in the least deprived areas (Guardian). It’s not clear what this means with regards to ‘most deprived’ and ‘areas’ – I think it’s top and bottom centiles and districts – and I’m sure I could find a more shocking figure if I chose a harsher definition of most and least deprived. The mistake they did make, though, was to divide 54 by 1000 and come up with 54% not 5.4%. That’s if they did a calculation: some social statistics come as ‘per 1000’ or ‘per 10,000’ and it’s important to notice this.

This matters for two reasons. First, because 54% v 18% is a big difference and much more significant than a difference between 5.4% and 1.8% (significant thought this is). Second, because anyone with any sense would realise that 54%, that is over half, is completely absurd.  Anywhere with 54% of its teenagers pregnant would have babies everywhere. Either the writer and editor just missed this, or they genuinely believed that there could be such a place and they are massively out of touch with normal life.

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Filed under media, News, Politicians, Statistics and simplicity

David Cameron’s Bike

David Cameron, possible future Prime Minister, has had his bike nicked. He foolishly left it on Portobello Road locked only to itself, so it was easily picked up and carried away.

This is a great photo of Cameron just after. I like the fact that he’s outside a bookmakers, with it’s implications of risk and reward, unfettered markets, using knowledge to make money out of money, and all that the neoliberals love.
Unfortunately, markets like this always have losers as well as winners, and so some people end up poor, and nick bikes or deal drugs for a living. Not that the Labour party have a better record on the issue of gambling, what with their support for super casinos…

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